Will the election be free and fair?

In the Dec’19 survey, more than six-in-ten (64%) say the election will be free and fair, and only 48% say the same in Feb’20.

Place of residence has the most effect on opinion about the election’s fairness. In Dec’19, all respondents from Southern Nations and Nationalities People Region (SNNPR), 75% from both Oromia and the smaller regions1and 60% from Addis Ababa say the election will be free and fair. During the same period, all respondents from the Amhara region say the election will not be free and fair. On the other hand, in Feb’20, the percentage of respondents who say the election will be free and fair dropped significantly. In SNNPR, it decreased by 30 percentage-point (from 100% to 70%); in Oromia, it fell by 15 percentage points (from 75% to 60%), and in Addis Ababa, it

decreased by 14 percentage points (from 60% to 46%). Response from the diaspora showed the most decline with a 32 percentage-point drop (from 62% to 30%)

Overall, younger respondents are more optimistic about the election. Both in the Dec’19 and Feb’20 surveys, more than 50% of 18-29 year-olds say the election will be free and fair. However, the optimism decreased in Feb’20, even for the younger respondents. In Feb’20, more than five-in-ten (55%) 18-29 year-olds say the election will be free and fair, which is a 13 percentage-point drop from the 68% in Dec’19. Similarly, in Dec’19, 57% of 29-60-year-olds say the election will be free and fair, while only 39% say the same in Feb’20.

Opinion on the fairness of the election also differs by gender. In Dec’19, more than seven in-ten (75%) of females say the election will be free and fair, compared to six in ten (63%) of men. In Feb’20, only 53% of females say the election will be free and fair, compared with 47% of men.

Opinion on whether the election will be free and fair also varies by education. In Feb’20, 67% of respondents with 12th grade and under say the election will be free and fair. However, during the same period, only 42% with MSc/Ph.D. and 49% with Bachelor/Diploma/Certificate say the same.

Though there is no enough data point for all age groups in all regions, an overlap of age and region shows younger electorate in all regions are a more up bit about the election than older ones. In Dec’19, 86% of 18-29year-olds from Oromia and all respondents from SNNPR say the election will be free and fair. Though the optimism in Oromia has not changed in Feb’20, there is a 13 percentage point drop in SNNPR.

On the other hand, in Feb’20, 48% of 18-29year-olds in Addis Ababa say the election will be free and fair, compared to 64% who say the same in Dec’19. In Feb’20, only 33% of 18-29 year-olds from the diaspora say the election will be free and fair. In the Amhara region, in Feb’20, 50% of 18-29 year-olds say the election will be free and fair, which is slightly higher than the overall average of 44% in Feb’20.

Across all regions, 29-60-year-old respondents do not share the strong optimism of the 18-29 year-olds. In Feb’20, only three-in-ten (29%) 29-60-year-olds in Oromia say the election will be free and fair; this is a 31% percentage point drop from the 60% in Dec’19. Similarly, in Dec’19, 33% of 29-60 years-olds from the smaller regions say the election will be free and fair; however, in Feb’20, 67% say it will not be free and fair, and 33% say they have no opinion.

Should the election be postponed?

Overall, in Feb’20, 51% say the election should be postponed, this is a 12 percentage point increase from Dec’19. Opinion regarding postponing the election varies by region. In Feb’20, 49% of respondents from Addis Ababa say the election should be postponed; this is a nine percentage-point increase from the 40% in Dec’19.

In Feb’20, in Oromia, only 33% say the election should be postponed, which is a 16 percentage-point increase from Dec’19. More respondents from the smaller regions say the election should be delayed. In Feb’20, 71% from the Amhara region, 60% from SNNPR, and 67% from the smaller regions say the election should be postponed.

There is a significant shift in support of postponing the election between Dec’19 and Fen’20. In Oromia, where a considerable number of respondents say the election will be free and fair, the support to delay the election increased from 17% in Dec’19 to 33% in Feb’20.

The opinion regarding postponing the election also varies by respondents’ age. In Feb’20, 65% of 29-60year-olds, say the election should be delayed, this is a 27 percentage-point increase from the 38% in Dec’19.

Education level also played a significant role in opinion regarding postponing the election. In Feb’20, 68% of the respondents with MSc/Ph.D. and 50% of the respondents with 12th grade and under say the election should be postponed. The support to postpone the election increased from Dec’19 to Feb’20 among respondents with MSc/Ph.D. by 26 percentage-point and by 12 percentage-point among those with Bachelor’s or Diploma or Certificate.

Upcoming Surveys and Reports

Reports:
– Opinion on what the government’s priority needs to be – Opinion on overall Ethiopian economic conditions
Surveys:
– Ethiopian Economists’ Opinion on the Homegrown Economic Reform (HGER)

Demographic Characteristics of the sample respondent